Initial predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have been significantly reduced following a largely uneventful start to the season, according to a recently updated forecast by Colorado State University (CSU). With only two named storms so far—tropical storms Arthur and Bertha along the Gulf Coast—CSU is now anticipating a season that is well below the 1991-2020 average.
CSU initially predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricanes. The organization now estimates that 2026 will have nine named storms (average is 14.4), four hurricanes (average is 7.2), and one major hurricane (average is 3.2). The probability of at least one major hurricane landfall for the entire U.S. coast is predicted to be 17%, down from initial predictions of 32% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 43%). It predicts the probability of a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula to be 8%, down from 15% initially (1880 to 2020 average is 21%). Lastly, it cut its initial prediction for a major hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward in half, from 20% to only 10% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 27%). As for the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, the prediction fell from 35% to 19% (average from 1880 to 2020 is 47%).
“Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” CSU states. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Other Predictions
As of May 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. “The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher),” states NOAA, which reports a 70% confidence in these ranges. For comparison, the organization notes, an average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The key factors driving NOAA’s forecast include the rapid development and strengthening of El Niño. NOAA states that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns and does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land, as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns.
Commenting on this year’s initial predictions at the beginning of the season, Howard Altschule, CEO, certified consulting meteorologist, Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC, said, “I think we’re in for a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year. The signals I’m seeing indicate that an El Niño pattern will develop this summer, and it could be a strong one. El Niño is known to cause stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, and strong wind shear usually precludes tropical systems from developing. That being said, it only takes one hurricane landfall to cause a major catastrophe (CAT) event, so everyone should be prepared for any scenario.”
Echoing Altschule in a response to CSU’s update, Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan adds, “A below-average forecast doesn’t guarantee a quiet season. It takes just one landfalling storm to make it a damaging year and preparation for residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should stay the same regardless of the outlook.”