Insured losses from the California wildfires may fall between $28 to $45 billion, according to the latest estimates by Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions division and CoreLogic. Verisk predicts losses to fall into the $28 to $35 billion range, while CoreLogic estimates fall between $35 and $45 billion.
Verisk’s estimate includes insured industry losses to property from the Palisades and Eaton fires together. “Of this total, Verisk estimates insured losses from the Palisades fire will range between $20 billion and $25 billion, and losses from the Eaton fire will range between $8 billion and $10 billion,” with most of the losses being to residential risks.
CoreLogic’s estimate, published on Jan. 16, includes both residential and commercial losses from the Palisades and Eaton fires; however, the company will provide final insured loss estimates once the fires have been fully contained.
Current Status of the Flames
As of Jan. 22, according to The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL Fire), the Palisades Fire is 68% contained, and the Eaton fire is $91% contained. So far, 40,462 acres have burned, 15,798 structures have been destroyed, and 28 fatalities have been reported, according to CAL Fire. Red Flag warnings have been extended to Thursday, Jan. 23, due to an “anticipated boost in wind coupled with persistent low humidity, according to the Los Angeles Times.
New Fires Erupt
New fires erupted on Jan. 21 and Jan. 22, including the Hughes fire in Los Angeles County, which is 0% contained; the Lilac fire and the Bernardo fire in San Diego County, which are 90% and 0% contained, respectively; and the Clay fire in Riverside County, which is 45% contained. Other smaller fires have erupted throughout Southern California, with most having been either been fully or partially contained. Evacuation orders are still in effect for some areas.
The Santa Ana winds will continue through at least Thursday, “sparking fears that progress made fighting wildfires…could be reversed and more blazes could break out,” reports CNN. Winds of 30 to 50mph are possible, with isolated gusts of up to 65mph.
The Promise of Rain: A Double-Edged Sword
Rain is on the horizon, according to several sources, which may help with the firefight, although forecasters predict another dry spell afterward. However, rain could create other challenges, according to The New York Times. The rain could “interact with the burned land to make flooding more likely and more destructive,” it warns. The Times quoted Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles, who states, “‘Any time there’s a burn scar, the land is more susceptible to what’s called debris flow…it takes less rain to trigger a flood, and it carries with it not just water, but also a lot of mud and trees and branches and rocks.’”
Up to one-third of an inch of rain is expected this weekend, prompting Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles to issue an emergency order to address the threat. “The chance of heavy debris flows in Los Angeles is not high,” Kittell told the Times, “as long as the rain that is forecast to fall from Saturday night through Monday comes down at a steady, moderate rate.”