Global insured losses from natural catastrophes for the first half of 2026 totaled between $44 billion and $47 billion, according to Gallagher Re, Munich Re, and Aon. While estimates varied slightly among the reinsurance brokers, all three found that the losses remained below the most recent five-year averages.
Insured Losses
Munich Re, which estimates insured losses to be roughly $44 billion, states that losses were only slightly below the inflation-adjusted average figures for the first half of the year over the past decade ($50 billion), but significantly below the five-year average ($66 billion). Gallagher Re estimates insured losses of $46 billion, but states that this figure is significantly lower (28%) than the decadal H-1 average of $64 billion and 45% below the most recent five-year average ($82 billion). Aon’s insured loss estimate sits at $47 billion, which they state is in line with the 21st-century H-1 average of $149 billion.
“[The year] 2026 became the first H1 without a singular event topping $5 billion for the insurance industry since 2020,” according to Gallagher Re. Excluding earthquakes and other non-weather perils, the preliminary total was $44 billion, or 26% lower than the decadal average of $60 billion and 43% lower than the most recent five-year average of $78 billion. All of the top five costliest H1 events primarily occurred in the U.S. “The below-average catastrophe losses through H1 2026 have further strengthened reinsurer and primary insurance carrier balance sheets, which leaves the market well-positioned to absorb potential volatility in the remainder of the year,” reports Gallagher Re.
Munich Re notes that, for insurers, severe convective storms (SCS) in the U.S. were the biggest driver of losses in H1 2026; however, total losses of $30 billion and insured losses of $22 billion were below average for the past 10 years ($34 billion total losses, $26 billion insured losses). “Natural catastrophes in the U.S. accounted for more than 77% of global insured losses in the H1 of 2026, reaching approximately $36 billion—26% above the regional average,” according to Aon, driven by SCS and winter storms.
The global insurance protection gap remains relatively low at 57%, Aon reports, a number that is “consistent with the gradual long-term decrease caused by the increasing dominance of U.S. and European SCS as the major loss drivers. Along the same lines, Munich Re estimates a 60% protection gap. Gallagher Re, however, estimates a much higher gap at 68%.
Economic Losses
Economic losses in the first half of 2026 have totaled $142 billion, according to Gallagher Re—10% below the 10-year H1 average ($159 billion). Munich Re estimates economic losses at only $112 billion—slightly below their 10-year average estimate of $113 billion but significantly below the five-year average of $136 billion. Similar to Munich Re’s, Aon’s economic loss estimate is $111 billion, below the 21st-century average of $149 billion and the lowest since 2018.
“When excluding earthquakes and other non-weather perils, the preliminary total was $104 billion, or 25% lower than the decadal average ($139 billion) and 37% lower than the previous five-year average ($164 billion),” reports Gallagher Re. The report notes that although the first half of 2026 has been manageable so far from a catastrophe loss perspective, “the persistent volatility of ‘non-peak’ perils—especially SCS and flood-related events—reinforces the consideration that lower headline losses do not equate to reduced systemic risk for countries and their citizens.”
According to Aon, overall, disaster losses in H1 2026 “continued on track of a relatively ‘normal’ year with moderate financial impacts from the global perspective. However, several extraordinary events generated severe, concentrated impacts,” including the earthquakes in Venezuela; Windstorm Kristin, a “compact yet extreme event [that] became the costliest event on record in Portugal and together with other storm and flood events in Europe caused multi-billion-dollar losses; and Typhoon Sinlaku, which devastated the Northern Mariana Islands in the Pacific.”
Aon notes that SCS were the costliest peril overall, making up about $40 billion in global losses; however, this figure is significantly lower than the period from 2023 to 2025, when total economic damages exceeded $60 billion for three years in a row.
H1 Catastrophic and Climate Events
In the U.S., the costliest natural disaster in H1 2026 was a large severe thunderstorm outbreak that impacted several Midwestern states, reaching as far south as Texas. Around 100 tornadoes were recorded, and losses added up to $5.8 billion, of which $4.1 billion were insured, according to Munich Re. The severe winter storms in the U.S. during the early months of 2026 were also major contributors.
The most destructive natural disaster during the first half of the year was the double earthquake in Venezuela on June 24. “In a matter of minutes, two powerful earthquakes with magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5 struck about 200 km west of the capital, Caracas, near the town of Morón,” Munich Re states. “According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), it was the most powerful quake to hit this highly earthquake-prone region since 1900.” The death toll as of July 2026 surpassed 5,000 people, according to NBC News. Preliminary loss estimates, Munich Re predicts, are expected to be around $30 billion, including less than $1 billion in insured losses.”
H1 2026 was also heavily influenced by El Niño, part of a natural climate cycle known as ENSO (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). “This cycle involves periodic changes in temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific, which can affect weather patterns around the globe,” the Munich Re report explains. As a result, the risk of drought and wildfires is increased in several regions, including Australia, Central America, and southwestern Africa, while other regions, including western South America, parts of Brazil, and the southwestern U.S. can experience heavy rainfall and flash floods. “El Niño also tends to cause higher global mean temperatures—on top of the higher temperatures already caused by climate change,” reports Munich Re. “Global mean sea surface temperatures are already at record levels.”
Aon reports that at least 16,200 people died due to natural disasters in H1 2026, well below the 21st-century average of 36,200. “Majority of the deaths was attributed to June European heatwave, with additional thousands of fatalities due to Venezuela earthquake.”
Despite the fact that losses in H1 2026 were lower than recent averages, factors such as climate change causing severe weather events in regions that are unprepared for them continue to create significant risk, making investment in prevention crucial, Munich Re emphasizes.