The end of November marked the end of the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, during which no storms made landfall in the U.S. for the first time in 10 years and a tropical cyclone did not hit Florida for the first time since 2019, according to Allianz Commercial. Despite this, however, Allianz’s catastrophe risk research team reports that this year’s overall season was an average one.
In 2025, there were 13 named storms and four major hurricanes, while Allianz forecasted 12 to 19 named storms and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or above), indicating that their predictions were on track. The average from 1991 to 2020 was 14 named storms and three major hurricanes. Furthermore, there were five total hurricanes and no U.S. hurricane landfalls, while Allianz Commercial forecasted six to 10 hurricanes and two U.S. landfalls. The average from 1991 to 2020 was seven hurricanes and 1.5 U.S. landfalls.
“With 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was very close to the 1991 to 2020 average defined by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and on the lower side of the preseason forecasts,” notes Allianz. “Among other factors, dry air moving in from the Sahara and a high-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico created unfavorable conditions for the formation of more storms.”
Allianz attributes the lack of U.S. landfalls in part to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA), which steered storms north and away from the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, although the overall numbers this year were close to average, the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), Allianz notes, was 9% above the 1991 to 2020 average. “By this measure, the 2025 season classifies as an above average one, comparable to the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but with a lower total hurricane count.” However, the hurricanes that did form were strong and short-lived, with three of the four major hurricanes (Erin, Humberto, and Melissa) reaching Category 5 strength. This made the 2025 season the second highest on record for Category 5 storm count, just behind the 2005 season, which recorded four.
CLM Experts Weigh In
CLM asked a few of its members and fellows for their thoughts on this year’s hurricane season, which are provided below.
Q: How well do you feel preseason forecasts predicted the number and strengths of storms during the Atlantic hurricane season this year overall? Please explain.
Howard Altshule, CEO, Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC: Seasonal hurricane forecasts that are made months in advance are often quite difficult [to make] and they don’t always work out as expected. For 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Colorado State University (CSU)…expected normal to above-normal activity this season. I took the other side of that forecast and expected a below normal hurricane season based on the trends that I was seeing.
The NHC forecasted 13-19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes, with a “70% confidence in these ranges.” CSU was slightly more bullish on above-normal activity, calling for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes in their first forecast released on April 3, 2025. The actual numbers of 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes led to mixed forecasting results. This is slightly below the seasonal averages of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. However, the four major hurricanes in 2025 are just above the annual average of three.
With the advent of machine learning models, we can look at past hurricane season activity for many past decades, see what the atmospheric and oceanic environments were like during each of those years, and make seasonal forecasts based on the present weather patterns and pattern recognition. These are exciting developments and we’re already seeing them have a significant impact on weather forecasting.
Michael A. Packer, Marshall Dennehey: Preseason forecasts were inconsistent in predicting the [number] of storms and the strength of the storms. The biggest miss by the preseason forecasts related to the number of predicted hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. This appears to have been the result of short-term weather patterns despite the increasing evidence of ocean water temperatures continuing to increase. While the [number] of hurricanes was below forecasts, the [number] of major hurricanes was on the high end of the forecast and higher than 30-year average. It will be interesting to analyze the next round of 30-year averages, which will take into account the last five years after a number of years of relatively quiet activity. Further, the use of AI in predictive models is likely to increase the annual storm forecasts.
Natalie Arroyave, Specialty Adjusting International, Inc.: I think the preseason forecasts did a solid job capturing the type of season we would have, even if some of the numbers didn’t land perfectly. Most outlooks were expecting above-normal activity, and that’s exactly what we saw—not an overwhelming number of storms, but storms that packed a punch. The intensity ended up being the real story. From my standpoint in property claims, the forecasts were directionally accurate: a busy basin, warm water, and a higher likelihood of strong hurricanes.
Q: What are your thoughts on the fact that there were no landfalls in the U.S.? Did this surprise you?
Altshule: I think we were very lucky. Given that we experienced nine straight years with a hurricane landfall in the U.S., getting through a season without a U.S. landfall was a pleasant surprise. Although Tropical Storm Chantal did cause considerable damage in the Carolinas back in July. Normally we’d expect to see 1 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. per season.
Michelle Goode, Custard Companies: It certainly did surprise me; in Florida, they had a very consistent warm winter, which I [predicted] would cause more storms to hit landfall. In my career handling property claims, I always felt that the warmer the winter, the worse hurricane season would be.
Packer: Given the increase in landfalls over the last few years, I was pleasantly surprised that no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. in 2025. Based on articles written and studies performed, this was attributed to short term weather patterns. Given the continuing rise of ocean water temperatures and other factors, I don’t think we should expect 2026 – 2028 to also be free of U.S. landfalls. The U.S. needed a year (and needs more) in which no hurricanes made landfall. Florida and the insurance industry continue to recover from the past several years of significant storms making landfall and causing wide-spread damage, often hitting the same areas more than once. Based on the studies and data, the bigger concern should be the rapid development of the storms from tropical storms to major hurricanes as they enter the Caribbean and how civilians can prepare under potentially short timelines.
Arroyave: Anytime you have multiple major hurricanes in one season, it is natural to assume at least one of them will hit the U.S. coast. In that sense, yes, it was surprising. But I’ve worked hurricanes long enough to know that landfalls hinge on timing and steering patterns, not on how active the basin is. So, I’d describe it less as a shock and more as a reminder that we were fortunate this year. The risk was absolutely there—it just didn’t materialize over U.S. soil.
A “quiet” year for the U.S. does not mean a quiet year overall. The impacts in the Caribbean were significant, and coastal erosion and indirect hazards still affected parts of our coastline. From a claims perspective, 2025 was more about where the storms went, not how strong they were. It’s important for both the public and the industry to resist the idea that one calm year signals a downward trend. Preparedness and mitigation matter just as much after a lucky season as after a destructive one.
Q: How did the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season fit in with the general trends of the past several years?
Packer: The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was not consistent with trends over the past several years in which we say tropical storms either develop or significantly increase in power over the Gulf of Mexico. Rather, almost all the tropical cyclone formation occurred in the Atlantic before entering the Caribbean, before turning north and west.
Arroyave: It fits the pattern we’ve been seeing: warm oceans, active seasons, and stronger storms. We’re in a stretch where above-normal hurricane seasons have become the rule rather than the exception. What made 2025 different is simply that the U.S. coast was spared. If you look at the broader climate signals and storm behavior, it was very much in line with the multi-year trend—it just didn’t translate into the same level of U.S. impacts we’ve seen recently.
Davis: The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season reflected several evolving trends in recent years. It began unusually late, but overall, storm frequency was near average or slightly below what we’ve seen in the past. However, intensity told a different story: the number of Category 5 hurricanes was above average, continuing the recent pattern of stronger storms.
Q: Did this year’s season reveal any new information about how climate change may influence storm activity?
Goode: During this season, in my opinion, the exceptionally warm ocean waters provided more fuel [for storms] to form earlier, intensify faster, and maintain strength longer than in previous years.
Packer: I think that it is far too early to say whether the 2025 storm season provided any additional information or data on how climate change may affect storm activity. If anything, the 2025 season may have revealed that in the face of climate change, weather patterns will be more inconsistent and unpredictable for the upcoming years. Until we experience storm seasons through 2030, which will allow us to study and compare 2000 through 2030 and 1970 through 2000, as well as 1940 through 1970 (and to the extent data exists (1910 through 1940), it will be difficult for us to understand exactly how climate change has influenced storm activity.
Arroyave: I wouldn’t say it revealed something brand new, but it did reinforce what we are already seeing: warmer oceans are creating an environment where storms have more fuel to intensify quickly and reach higher peak strengths. The number of storms is not exploding, but the storms we do get tend to have a higher ceiling. This season was another example of that. Even without major U.S. landfalls, the intensity of the storms that formed tells a story we cannot ignore.
Q: Does the lack of U.S. landfalls in 2025 affect catastrophe modeling for 2026? If so, how?
Goode: Yes, but not in the way most would assume. A quiet U.S. landfall season does not automatically lower 2026, but it does, I believe, influence certain model inputs, risk perceptions, and pricing behavior with insurers and reinsurers.
Packer: It is hard to say at this time because we do not know if 2025 was an anomaly or if the NAO truly affected storm patterns to the extent there were no landfalls in 2025. Once more data is collected and analyzed, we may be able to see.
Arroyave: The models themselves won’t shift dramatically based on one season—they run on decades of data, not one lucky year. But how insurers interpret the risk going into 2026 will absolutely be influenced. Companies will evaluate their portfolios, look at 2025 as a “near-miss year,” and update pricing and retention strategies accordingly. A quiet landfall season tends to create a psychological reset, but the underlying exposure has not changed. If anything, 2025 is a good reminder not to base decisions solely on who did or did not get hit last year.
Davis: Models are built on long-term climatological trends, not single-season anomalies. What matters is the underlying signs: storms are becoming more intense, even if landfall patterns fluctuate year to year. The 2025 season reinforced the need to stress-test for high-severity events. Insurers shouldn’t scale back risk assumptions because of one quiet U.S. season. Instead, it could be helpful to refine models to capture the growing likelihood of rapid intensification and concentrated losses, particularly in coastal and Caribbean markets.
For insurers, this season offers a timely reminder to:
- Reassess catastrophe models to account for rapid intensification and higher peak wind speeds.
- Stress-test portfolios for concentrated losses in high-risk regions like the Caribbean, even when U.S. landfall risk seems low.
- Prioritize resilience and mitigation strategies for policyholders, as episodic but severe events can drive outsized claims.
In short, the emerging pattern is not about more storms; it’s about bigger, more destructive storms. This requires insurance to shift from traditional frequency-based risk assumptions to intensity-focused planning.