The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to have below-normal activity and a below-average probability for hurricanes making U.S. landfall, according to several sources. The Atlantic basin season, which begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, was considered near-normal last year. In addition, there were no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, as noted in CLM Magazine’s article recapping the 2025 season. In 2025, there were 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, while Allianz forecasted 12 to 19 named storms and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The Predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. “The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher),” states NOAA, which reports a 70% confidence in these ranges. For comparison, an average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The key factors driving NOAA’s forecast include a fast and intense development of El Niño during the season. NOAA notes that its outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns and does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns.
Colorado State University (CSU) also predicts that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” CSU states. “Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. CSU anticipates El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. It is forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.”
CSU forecasts that there will be 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. CSU also predicts a 32% probability of a major hurricane landfall for the entire U.S. coast, down from the 1880-2020 average of 43%. Furthermore, it forecasts a 15% probability of a major hurricane landfall for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, down from the 21% average from 1880 to 2020. It predicts a 20% probability for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX, down from the 1880 to 2020 average of 27%, and a 35% probability for the Caribbean, down from the 1880 to 2020 average of 47%.
Commenting on this year’s predictions, Howard Altschule, CEO, certified consulting meteorologist, Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC, says, “I think we’re in for a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year. The signals I’m seeing indicate that an El Niño pattern will develop this summer, and it could be a strong one. El Niño is known to cause stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, and strong wind shear usually precludes tropical systems from developing. That being said, it only takes one hurricane landfall to cause a major catastrophe (CAT) event, so everyone should be prepared for any scenario.”
Implications for the Insurance Industry
Taylor Davis, partner, Clyde & Co US LLP, notes the possible implications for the insurance industry. “Below-average forecasts may reinforce soft market sentiment, but they shouldn’t distract from underlying exposure,” she says. “Claims professionals should remain ready for a catastrophic event as predictions do not always materialize. Further, a single, major event can reset pricing and capacity quickly, so underwriters, brokers, and insureds should already be thinking beyond this season into 2027.”
She adds, “Three themes stand out: softening rates in some segments alongside lingering volatility; rapid adoption of AI and other data-driven tools; and a growing focus on forward planning. The most resilient organizations are those using today’s relative calm to get ahead of next season’s uncertainty.”
Davis has not noticed complacency among insurance professionals, despite the forecasts. “While a quieter season coincided with softening conditions in parts of the property market, claims organizations seem to have resisted complacency. The memory of recent severe loss years means operational readiness and surge planning have largely been maintained.”
Altschule adds, “As a forensic meteorologist and former deputy emergency manager, it’s important to have pre-plans in place. Each organization should be thinking about how they’ll respond when the next hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. The question isn’t if it will happen, it’s when it will happen.”
Patrick Milone, property claims manager at Claims Administration Corporation, advises insurers to “have a CAT plan in place, test it every year for any changes, monitor PIF every year—especially in the high-[risk] areas and coastal risk areas…All insurers should review their book of business in the high-risk areas and determine exposures via use of CAT modules.” He encourages insurers to “always be prepared for the worst….[it’s] better to be ready than caught short.”
Takeaways From Last Year
“The main takeaway from last year’s hurricane season is that seasonal hurricane forecasting is not an exact science,” explains Altschule. “There are global weather trends and climatology that will favor an above-normal hurricane season and other trends that will favor below-normal activity. Mother Nature sometimes surprises us, so we all need to be prepared and hope for the best.”
The main lesson from last year, according to Davis, “is to use quieter periods strategically—to train new claims professionals, invest in technology-driven claims triage processes, strengthen vendor networks, and refine response protocols. A lower-volume claims window is an opportunity to prepare, not to scale back.”
Hurricane Preparedness
No matter the forecasts, hurricane preparedness is essential. The Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) shared several tips for the 2026 season, including:
- Having the right type—and amount—of property insurance by conducting an annual insurance review of policy(ies) with an insurance professional.
- Protecting vehicles with comprehensive auto, an optional coverage that protects vehicles against theft and damage caused by an incident other than a collision.
- Adequately protecting possessions by imagining the out-of-pocket cost of repurchasing personal possessions after a hurricane and creating an inventory of belongings and their value to ensure sufficient insurance for either the replacement cost or the actual cash value of the items.
- Making property more resilient by investing in items that will harden property against wind damage, such as roof tie-downs, a wind-rated garage door, and storm shutters.
Triple-I also recommends annual roof inspections by a licensed and bonded contractor to make sure it can withstand high winds and torrential rains.
New Technological Advancements
“We continue to see significant growth with how artificial intelligence models are used in forecasting the weather, including hurricanes,” says Altschule. “For instance, Google DeepMind and Google Research have their own AI models that predict hurricane formation, track, intensity, and size. These models use artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and granular weather data to help provide more accurate forecasts further in advance. We still have a lot to learn, but technology continues to advance and improve forecasts.”
“AI is becoming embedded in the insurance industry like so many others. Use of technology is increasing across the life cycle from underwriting to claims—it can speed up decision-making, improve efficiencies in risk and claim assessment, and assist with fraud detection,” Davis adds. “AI’s ability to digest and summarize large quantities of data holds the potential to help risk managers and claims managers alike by refining portfolio-wide risk assessments and providing relevant information faster.”
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is implementing an improved version of its tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental U.S., Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Furthermore, NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone “that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.” NHC will also provide new products and services for the Hawaiian Islands to include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic.
In collaboration with the Unified Forecast System community, NOAA is testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System that “utilizes the latest modeling technology and new methods to assess the evolution of the global ocean-atmosphere system.” In addition, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is using machine learning to quality-control data collected from tail Doppler radar, a “specialized radar system mounted on the back of NOAA’s ‘Hurricane Hunter’ aircraft.”
NOAA also states that for the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season, which can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.